Oscar Predictions: 2013

Wow, I have been totally slacking on postings lately but there is nothing better than Oscar season to change that. I love me some movies and even though I forget who wins 20 minutes after the awards are over, I love me some Oscars. However, something weird is happening this award season – I basically don’t have any fucking clue who is nominated for anything and have barely seen all of the nominated films. Why is that? How did this happen? Is it the movie quality? Is it the Internet taking me away from movies? Are award shows just irrelevant now?

I can’t think too much about it. I need to just dive into my predications.

I give you: 2013 Oscar awards predictions (even though I haven’t seen all of the films but don’t really need too).

BEST PICTURE

Amour Argo Beasts of the Southern Wild Django Unchained Les Miserables Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty

Winner: Argo. Argo has too much momentum. Affleck is going to win a best actor award some day… then best director… then we’re all going to look back on Affleck’s career and he’s going to down in history as having the most unique IMDB page ever.

BEST ACTOR Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables Joaquin Phoenix, The Master Denzel Washington, Flight

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis. Never bet against DDL.

Side note: I watched Flight the other day and Denzel killed it.

BEST ACTRESS Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Naomi Watts, The Impossible Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Winner: Jessica Chastain – because… um… I haven’t seen 4 out of the 5 movies in here. This is a strange category, someone either very obvious or someone unexpected always wins. I wonder if there could be a crazy Jennifer Lawrence win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Arkin, Argo Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Winner: Waltz!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams, The Master Sally Field, Lincoln Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Helen Hunt, The Sessions Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Winner: Anne Hathaway. Remember when she hosted the Oscars that one year?

BEST DIRECTOR Michael Haneke, Amour Ang Lee, Life of Pi David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Winner: Steven “I’m such a badass” Spielberg. Come on. It’s SS.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty John Gatins, Flight Michael Haneke, Amour Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Winner: I think Tarantino is going to win this thing but if John Gatins wins for Flight I won’t be mad. Did I mention that Flight was insane.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild Tony Kushner, Lincoln David Magee, Life of Pi David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Chris Terrio, Argo

Winner: Tony Kushner. Because it’s a Spielberg film!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Brave Frankenweenie ParaNorman The Pirates! Band of Misfits Wreck-It Ralph

Winner: Sad to say I haven’t seen any of these in their entirety. So this is how we’re going to do this? Any Pixar films on here? Yes? Oh, Brave. Okay, Brave wins.

Award Show Irrelevancy?

Watching the Golden Globes and SAG awards I can’t help but wonder if award shows have become irrelevant. Do people care any more? I obviously care because I’m watching them, and writing about them, but do average moviegoers and people care about award shows?

Before I go any further I should mention that there is a part of me that acknowledges I may be bitter because I’m not actually attending these award shows. If I were nominated for something at any award show, I don’t care if it was in the armpit of the world aka Panama City Beach, I’d be there the night before just waiting to make sure I get in. With that nugget in mind…

I don’t feel as though award shows are as relevant anymore for one reason: The oversaturation of stars. A big appeal to these shows was and is getting celebrities together, seeing them in one place, and then seeing them interact. When people used to ask what Jane Doe is wearing other people actually cared. Due to social media and paparazzi the appeal and mystique has faded. But is this really anything new? No.

So what happens when the appeal of celebrity is totally gone? What happens when we’re so immersed in Jane Doe’s instagram and Twitter life that nothing is new? Where do award shows go from there? Well, the actual award will have to mean something and people will have to care about what the award means.

Back in the day when I’d ask my mom to see a movie I’d pitch it as “It’s from the director who won the academy award for…” Does that thought process really exist anymore? I don’t necessarily think it does… as much. I don’t think society boasts about awards like it once did, especially when we’re talking about movies.

Just to confuse things and essentially make an argument against myself I checked out this article: According to this article when your film is nominated you roughly get a 22% spike in sales and then actually winning gives another 15% - That’s pretty significant. This is called the “Oscar Bump” and up until that article I thought the Oscar Bump didn’t happened anymore.

We’ll see how this plays out over the next 10 years. It’ll be interesting to see what happens, especially with technology changing the game even more than it currently is. We’ll see if the old school mysterious celebrity morphs into a newer common day “my life is yours to watch” celebrity. If this happens then award shows may have to adjust and become somewhat of a reality show in itself.

For the record I want a striving entertainment industry. I want award shows to be relevant and I want more people to see things because of those awards.

Alright.

I’m off to DVR the Oscars and prepare my predictions of who will win what.

Real quick - Can you answer who won the academy award for best picture last year and the year before?

The Oscars: Predictions

 

Before I jump into this I should note my Oscar Pool of 1 person (me) is still looking for more people to join, so if you want in let me know!

I just told my friend Ottford that I want to do Oscar predictions with him. Our conversation went exactly like this:

Joshford: I want to do Oscar Predictions with you.

Ottford: The Artist wins every award.

Joshford: Calling it?

Ottford: Even one’s it’s not up for.

I feel that he may be on to something. Every year a film or actor starts to gain momentum at the right time and it seems like that film is currently The Artist… with The Help floating somewhere behind. I think we’re beyond pretending to be surprised that the film that wins best picture isn’t always the best picture, it’s a political/momentum thing.

Quick side story: I had a friend who was at an academy member’s house and it happened to be right around voting time. The member was in the process of doing his voting and essentially half assed his final votes because he was tired, to speed up the process, his votes were eventually based off of people behind the project as opposed to the project itself. When the member finished his ballot he looked to my friend and said “Whenever you’re nominated, don’t forget that’s how it’s done.”

And after that insanely inspiring story its time to jump into the Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture:

The Artist The Descendants Extremely Loud & Incredibly close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris MoneyBall The Tree of Life War Horse

In a less than inspiring pool of films my pick to win best picture is: THE ARTIST

Truthfully I want Midnight in Paris or Moneyball to win but that isn’t going to happen. Also, if The Help won, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Best Actor:

Demian Bichir (A Better Life) George Clooney (The Descendants) Jean Dujardin (The Artist) Brad Pitt (Moneyball) Gary Oldman (Inker Tailor Soldier Spy)

This is the most interesting category because a month ago this was all Clooney and then the SAG awards happened and now it’s all Dujardin. Wasn’t Pitt somewhere in this conversation?

Winner: Jean Dujardin! What the fuck did I just type! Sorry Clooney, I want it to be you - I think everyone wants it to be you.

Best Actress:

Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) Viola Davis (The Help) Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)

First of all, Glen Close as Albert Nobbs scares me more than her role as Alex Forrest in Fatal Attraction. She looks creepy as Nobbs. I haven’t seen the movie but if it’s about a creepy looking old guy who sort of resembles Benjamin Button then she’s spot on. Even though I haven’t seen Close as Nobbs I don’t have to. Everyone and their mothers know Viola Davis is going to win this award. The Help will excel in one area at the Oscars: Women winning something.

Winner: Viola Davis

Supporting Actor:

Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn) Jonah Hill (Moneyball) Nick Nolte (Warrior) Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)

I want Jonah Hill to win this award more than I want to see a sequel to Superbad. How amazing would it be to see Jonah Hill win an Oscar? 21 Jump Street would start changing their promos to: Starring Academy Award winner Jonah Hill. Having said that, he won’t win.

Winner: Christopher Plummer

Supporting Actress:

Berenice Bejo (The Artist) Jessica Chastain (The Help) Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) Octavia Spencer (The Help)

The Help = Women winning things.

Winner: Octavia Spencer

Animated Feature:

A Cat in Paris Chico & Rita Kung Fu Panda 2 Puss in Boots Rango

I love animated movies. I really liked Puss in Boots, I liked it so much that my girlfriend had to do one of those “really babe?” moments when I was laughing so hard. Best part in Boots is dancing/fighting scene when Puss started to salsa and eventually was floating in… wait… getting distracted. Unfortunately, I don’t think Boots is going to win. I’m going with –

Winner: Rango

Cinematography:

The Artist The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Hugo The Tree of Life War Horse

How can you go against a Fincher movie in best Cinematography category?

Winner: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Best Director:

The Artist The Descendants Hugo Midnight in Paris The Tree of Life

You know what’s interesting about this – The categories don’t have the director’s names but rather the film. I wonder why they did that? I think that fact alone allows the unknown Michel Hazanavicius to have a better shot at this. As much as I’d love to see Alexander Payne win this I don’t think it’s going to be him. I think the Academy is going unknown.

Winner: Michel Hazananananavicius

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

The Descendents Hugo The Ides of March Moneyball Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I like this category because all of these movies are solid enough to put up an argument for why it should win. Deep down I want Moneyball to win, and I think it should, but I don’t think it will. I’m going with the Clooney film, and I don’t mean Ides of March.

Winner: The Descendents

Best Writing (Original Screenplay):

The Artist Bridesmaids Margin Call Midnight in Paris A Separation

I would be shocked if The Artist won this award. I would think it’s great if Bridesmaids won but my choice is a choice I never thought I’d say…

Winner: Midnight in Paris

I’m not the biggest Woody Allen fan but I loved Midnight in Paris and want to revisit some of his films, also, I’m to embarrassed to admit I haven’t seen some of his “classics.” I know this isn’t the entire Academy Award field but it’s what I think people care about most. I suppose I could have gotten into best foreign film, best doc, best editing, and best films that are black and white without sound.

I’m starting to wonder if Ottford is right and we’re going to have a sweep of The Artist, I hope we don’t simply because I don’t think it deserves it, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised… there are a lot of lazy voters in the world.

If anyone wants into the Oscar pool email me… Top Prize To Be Determined.

Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes - I will defend you forever.

Me talking to my girlfriend on August 5^th:

Me: Hey, you know what I really want to see?

Her: What?

Me: Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes.

Her: Let’s do it.

Me: Those Apes look like they want to fuck something up.

August 6^th:

We walk into the Arclight Cinema located here in Hollywood and about 2 hours later I was trying to figure out what just happened. How did I just get blindsided by complete awesomeness and not even know it. Was it the amazing arclight popcorn? Maybe. Odds are it was a combination of things; 1) great environment 2) the popcorn 3) the movie itself.

I remember when I saw Jurassic Park and gazing at the Brontosaurus for the first time, you know the moment when Dr. Grant and Dr. Sattler hop out of the jeep mouths agape? Well, that’s basically how a bunch of the kids in the theater were when watching Apes, myself included. I’m not saying this is in the same ballpark as Jurassic Park, I’m just saying it had some moments that conjured up complete excitement.

I honestly think that Rise Of The Planet of the Apes is a movie that 13 year olds will remember and hopefully defend one day. When I say defend a movie I mean that when you hear a friend 10 years from now say “That movie was okay” it’s mandatory that you jump in and say “No dickhead, that movie is better than okay, and I’m here to defend the apes.”

There is a major component how this became an instant defendable movie, and it’s because it’s a movie that caught me (and others) off guard. I wanted to see the movie but I didn’t know how good it was. The one thing that can kill or make and movie great is expectations, you know when your friend see’s a film and talks it up like it’s the second coming then you see it and it isn’t as good because of expectations? Yeah, well I was the friend talking it up.

The expectation variable is so overlooked so many times when discussing film and engaging in arguments. The same argument could be used about professional athletes but I’m sticking to films for the moment. I got to thinking about movies that I hold in the:

Little to no expectations and I’ll defend to the death category:

The Sixth Sense: If you’re one of those people who say, “I knew the ending” I call you a liar and I would pay big money to hop into a DeLorean and watch it with you for the first time. When I saw this I was on a vacation in Denver and the family decided to see a movie. I didn’t choose this, everyone else did, but when I walked out I officially saw dead people and this moment sparked a never ending defending to M. Knight Shymalangagagagagagan.

American Pie: I was just about to start high school when this movie came out and it couldn’t have been much more entertaining than it was, 50 years later I’ll probably see the 4^th installment which comes out some time soon. By the way American Pie was made for $11 million and made over $100 million (Domestic only).

Ace Ventura: Pet Detective: Undeniable classic. I don’t think a single human besides Jim Carrey and Dan Marino thought this movie was going to be good. It was better than good… I still quote it.

The Truman Show: Since we’re talking Jim Carrey I should bring this up. This was Carrey’s push into seriousness and he brought it. This movie is so relevant right now; I could actually see this happening in today’s entertainment environment.

The Other Guys: It’s hard to say there is a below the radar Will Ferrell / Mark Wahlberg movie but this was it. I saw this movie in a not so crowded theater and I may have been the loudest person laughing.

The Bourne Identity: This may seem ludicrous to think that Bourne had low expectations but I vividly remember nobody thought Good Will Hunting Damon was going to be James Bond 2.0 – but he was. Aside from Hunting this was the biggest game changer for Damon.

Taken: Since we’re talking Bourne, Taken would be how Jason Bourne is in 20 years with a family. Taken is the ultimate word of mouth movie, and here’s how you know:

Opening weekend: $24 Million

2^nd Weekend: $20 Million  (-16.7% change in gross)

3^rd Weekend: $18 Million  (-7.6% change in gross from 2^nd weekend)

4^th Weekend: $21 Million (+6.2% change from gross in 3^rd weekend)

This is insane. For a movie to decrease by that small of a percentage each week is considered an accomplishment beyond accomplishments. THEN for it to increase in it’s 4^th week is even more nuts - Not to mention it’s lone star power was Liam Neeson who isn’t exactly Will Smith.

Starship Troopers: At this point in life this movie is fucking terrible and maybe even laughable… But I’ll still defend Johnny Rico and him killing bugs.

Let Me In: Matt Reeves’ follow up to Cloverfield. If you haven’t seen this movie be prepared to be incredibly on edge.

I’ll stop there and remind you that Apes came out on DVD yesterday. If you haven’t seen it – see it. If you have seen it and want to talk poorly about it come find me so I can defend it like Cesar defending his Apes. Hail Cesar.