Before I jump into this I should note my Oscar Pool of 1 person (me) is still looking for more people to join, so if you want in let me know!
I just told my friend Ottford that I want to do Oscar predictions with him. Our conversation went exactly like this:
Joshford: I want to do Oscar Predictions with you.
Ottford: The Artist wins every award.
Joshford: Calling it?
Ottford: Even one’s it’s not up for.
I feel that he may be on to something. Every year a film or actor starts to gain momentum at the right time and it seems like that film is currently The Artist… with The Help floating somewhere behind. I think we’re beyond pretending to be surprised that the film that wins best picture isn’t always the best picture, it’s a political/momentum thing.
Quick side story: I had a friend who was at an academy member’s house and it happened to be right around voting time. The member was in the process of doing his voting and essentially half assed his final votes because he was tired, to speed up the process, his votes were eventually based off of people behind the project as opposed to the project itself. When the member finished his ballot he looked to my friend and said “Whenever you’re nominated, don’t forget that’s how it’s done.”
And after that insanely inspiring story its time to jump into the Oscar Predictions:
The Artist The Descendants Extremely Loud & Incredibly close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris MoneyBall The Tree of Life War Horse
In a less than inspiring pool of films my pick to win best picture is: THE ARTIST
Truthfully I want Midnight in Paris or Moneyball to win but that isn’t going to happen. Also, if The Help won, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Demian Bichir (A Better Life) George Clooney (The Descendants) Jean Dujardin (The Artist) Brad Pitt (Moneyball) Gary Oldman (Inker Tailor Soldier Spy)
This is the most interesting category because a month ago this was all Clooney and then the SAG awards happened and now it’s all Dujardin. Wasn’t Pitt somewhere in this conversation?
Winner: Jean Dujardin! What the fuck did I just type! Sorry Clooney, I want it to be you - I think everyone wants it to be you.
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) Viola Davis (The Help) Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
First of all, Glen Close as Albert Nobbs scares me more than her role as Alex Forrest in Fatal Attraction. She looks creepy as Nobbs. I haven’t seen the movie but if it’s about a creepy looking old guy who sort of resembles Benjamin Button then she’s spot on. Even though I haven’t seen Close as Nobbs I don’t have to. Everyone and their mothers know Viola Davis is going to win this award. The Help will excel in one area at the Oscars: Women winning something.
Winner: Viola Davis
Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn) Jonah Hill (Moneyball) Nick Nolte (Warrior) Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
I want Jonah Hill to win this award more than I want to see a sequel to Superbad. How amazing would it be to see Jonah Hill win an Oscar? 21 Jump Street would start changing their promos to: Starring Academy Award winner Jonah Hill. Having said that, he won’t win.
Winner: Christopher Plummer
Berenice Bejo (The Artist) Jessica Chastain (The Help) Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) Octavia Spencer (The Help)
The Help = Women winning things.
Winner: Octavia Spencer
A Cat in Paris Chico & Rita Kung Fu Panda 2 Puss in Boots Rango
I love animated movies. I really liked Puss in Boots, I liked it so much that my girlfriend had to do one of those “really babe?” moments when I was laughing so hard. Best part in Boots is dancing/fighting scene when Puss started to salsa and eventually was floating in… wait… getting distracted. Unfortunately, I don’t think Boots is going to win. I’m going with –
The Artist The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Hugo The Tree of Life War Horse
How can you go against a Fincher movie in best Cinematography category?
Winner: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
The Artist The Descendants Hugo Midnight in Paris The Tree of Life
You know what’s interesting about this – The categories don’t have the director’s names but rather the film. I wonder why they did that? I think that fact alone allows the unknown Michel Hazanavicius to have a better shot at this. As much as I’d love to see Alexander Payne win this I don’t think it’s going to be him. I think the Academy is going unknown.
Winner: Michel Hazananananavicius
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
The Descendents Hugo The Ides of March Moneyball Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I like this category because all of these movies are solid enough to put up an argument for why it should win. Deep down I want Moneyball to win, and I think it should, but I don’t think it will. I’m going with the Clooney film, and I don’t mean Ides of March.
Winner: The Descendents
Best Writing (Original Screenplay):
The Artist Bridesmaids Margin Call Midnight in Paris A Separation
I would be shocked if The Artist won this award. I would think it’s great if Bridesmaids won but my choice is a choice I never thought I’d say…
Winner: Midnight in Paris
I’m not the biggest Woody Allen fan but I loved Midnight in Paris and want to revisit some of his films, also, I’m to embarrassed to admit I haven’t seen some of his “classics.” I know this isn’t the entire Academy Award field but it’s what I think people care about most. I suppose I could have gotten into best foreign film, best doc, best editing, and best films that are black and white without sound.
I’m starting to wonder if Ottford is right and we’re going to have a sweep of The Artist, I hope we don’t simply because I don’t think it deserves it, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised… there are a lot of lazy voters in the world.
If anyone wants into the Oscar pool email me… Top Prize To Be Determined.