The Oscars: Predictions

 

Before I jump into this I should note my Oscar Pool of 1 person (me) is still looking for more people to join, so if you want in let me know!

I just told my friend Ottford that I want to do Oscar predictions with him. Our conversation went exactly like this:

Joshford: I want to do Oscar Predictions with you.

Ottford: The Artist wins every award.

Joshford: Calling it?

Ottford: Even one’s it’s not up for.

I feel that he may be on to something. Every year a film or actor starts to gain momentum at the right time and it seems like that film is currently The Artist… with The Help floating somewhere behind. I think we’re beyond pretending to be surprised that the film that wins best picture isn’t always the best picture, it’s a political/momentum thing.

Quick side story: I had a friend who was at an academy member’s house and it happened to be right around voting time. The member was in the process of doing his voting and essentially half assed his final votes because he was tired, to speed up the process, his votes were eventually based off of people behind the project as opposed to the project itself. When the member finished his ballot he looked to my friend and said “Whenever you’re nominated, don’t forget that’s how it’s done.”

And after that insanely inspiring story its time to jump into the Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture:

The Artist The Descendants Extremely Loud & Incredibly close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris MoneyBall The Tree of Life War Horse

In a less than inspiring pool of films my pick to win best picture is: THE ARTIST

Truthfully I want Midnight in Paris or Moneyball to win but that isn’t going to happen. Also, if The Help won, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Best Actor:

Demian Bichir (A Better Life) George Clooney (The Descendants) Jean Dujardin (The Artist) Brad Pitt (Moneyball) Gary Oldman (Inker Tailor Soldier Spy)

This is the most interesting category because a month ago this was all Clooney and then the SAG awards happened and now it’s all Dujardin. Wasn’t Pitt somewhere in this conversation?

Winner: Jean Dujardin! What the fuck did I just type! Sorry Clooney, I want it to be you - I think everyone wants it to be you.

Best Actress:

Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) Viola Davis (The Help) Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)

First of all, Glen Close as Albert Nobbs scares me more than her role as Alex Forrest in Fatal Attraction. She looks creepy as Nobbs. I haven’t seen the movie but if it’s about a creepy looking old guy who sort of resembles Benjamin Button then she’s spot on. Even though I haven’t seen Close as Nobbs I don’t have to. Everyone and their mothers know Viola Davis is going to win this award. The Help will excel in one area at the Oscars: Women winning something.

Winner: Viola Davis

Supporting Actor:

Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn) Jonah Hill (Moneyball) Nick Nolte (Warrior) Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)

I want Jonah Hill to win this award more than I want to see a sequel to Superbad. How amazing would it be to see Jonah Hill win an Oscar? 21 Jump Street would start changing their promos to: Starring Academy Award winner Jonah Hill. Having said that, he won’t win.

Winner: Christopher Plummer

Supporting Actress:

Berenice Bejo (The Artist) Jessica Chastain (The Help) Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) Octavia Spencer (The Help)

The Help = Women winning things.

Winner: Octavia Spencer

Animated Feature:

A Cat in Paris Chico & Rita Kung Fu Panda 2 Puss in Boots Rango

I love animated movies. I really liked Puss in Boots, I liked it so much that my girlfriend had to do one of those “really babe?” moments when I was laughing so hard. Best part in Boots is dancing/fighting scene when Puss started to salsa and eventually was floating in… wait… getting distracted. Unfortunately, I don’t think Boots is going to win. I’m going with –

Winner: Rango

Cinematography:

The Artist The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Hugo The Tree of Life War Horse

How can you go against a Fincher movie in best Cinematography category?

Winner: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Best Director:

The Artist The Descendants Hugo Midnight in Paris The Tree of Life

You know what’s interesting about this – The categories don’t have the director’s names but rather the film. I wonder why they did that? I think that fact alone allows the unknown Michel Hazanavicius to have a better shot at this. As much as I’d love to see Alexander Payne win this I don’t think it’s going to be him. I think the Academy is going unknown.

Winner: Michel Hazananananavicius

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

The Descendents Hugo The Ides of March Moneyball Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I like this category because all of these movies are solid enough to put up an argument for why it should win. Deep down I want Moneyball to win, and I think it should, but I don’t think it will. I’m going with the Clooney film, and I don’t mean Ides of March.

Winner: The Descendents

Best Writing (Original Screenplay):

The Artist Bridesmaids Margin Call Midnight in Paris A Separation

I would be shocked if The Artist won this award. I would think it’s great if Bridesmaids won but my choice is a choice I never thought I’d say…

Winner: Midnight in Paris

I’m not the biggest Woody Allen fan but I loved Midnight in Paris and want to revisit some of his films, also, I’m to embarrassed to admit I haven’t seen some of his “classics.” I know this isn’t the entire Academy Award field but it’s what I think people care about most. I suppose I could have gotten into best foreign film, best doc, best editing, and best films that are black and white without sound.

I’m starting to wonder if Ottford is right and we’re going to have a sweep of The Artist, I hope we don’t simply because I don’t think it deserves it, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised… there are a lot of lazy voters in the world.

If anyone wants into the Oscar pool email me… Top Prize To Be Determined.

Bryan Cranston: Best TV Actor Ever?

I’m currently in the process of feeding my Breaking Bad addiction that started about 2 months ago (I’m currently 5 episodes through Season 4). While watching there are about 3 constants that pop in my head. 1 – This show is almost as addicting as LOST. 2 – I never want to do Meth. 3 – Bryan Cranston is amazing.

Cranston is part of one of the single greatest show of all time – Seinfeld: Dr. Tim Whatley, DDS – 5 episodes – 5 great episodes.

Episode 1: The Mom and Pop Store: The episode where George thinks he has Jon Voight’s car and Jerry doesn’t get an invite from Whatley to attend his Thanksgiving party.

Episode 2: The Label Maker: Jerry gives Whatley Jets Super Bowl Tickets. Whatley gives Jerry a Label Maker in return, which happened to be the same label maker Elaine gave Whatley… The birth of “The Re-Gifter”.

Episode 3: The Jimmy: Jerry suspects Whatley is giving out too much Novocain at his dental office and engaging is sexual acts with his patients.

Episode 4: The Yada Yada Yada: The infamous Anti-Dentite episode. Jerry suspects Whatley converted to Judaism for the Jewish jokes.

Episode 5: The Strike: George, Elaine, and Jerry find out at Whatley’s Hanukkah party that a donation has been made in their name to the “Children’s Alliance” – they suspect this was made up by Whatley in order to not give a gift.

The thing about the 5 episodes is that they spanned over the entirety of Seinfeld. His first appearance was on the 94th episode and his last was on the 166th – the show ran for 180. Whatley was memorable, people wanted more of him, and aside from David Puddy I’d argue he was the best returning character the show had.

Post 5 awesome episodes Cranston played Hal in Malcolm in the Middle for 151 episodes. He was nominated for 3 Emmy’s while playing the father to Malcolm and the kids.

Side note: How awesome would Cranston be on “Modern Family” as Phil Dunphy?

For the record, 151 episodes of any TV is kind of a massive accomplishment. It’s the kind of thing that either never happens for actors/actresses or it happens once in a career. It’s also the kind of thing that while it’s happening you end up pigeonholing each actor in their role. Think about any memorable character you’ve ever seen for 5+ years on TV and what they end up doing afterwards. You associate people at what they’re good at, and Cranston is clearly good with comedy.

It’s a double edged sword for actors simply because once you are great as a character that’s what gets you work – so the obvious choice for Cranston is to do comedy over and over again because it’s what will keep him employed. Apparently Cranston had other ideas… Enter Walter White.

Walter White, the Chemistry teacher diagnosed with lung cancer turned Meth producer and occasional dealer. White is the lead badass on Breaking Bad, which is a far cry from Cranston’s comedy we’ve come to know him in. Which means – Cranston did what so many have failed at, he successfully transitioned from show to show, Comedy to Drama, and has sustained as a TV actor. But not only has he sustained; he’s been fucking awesome at it, and at times the best at it.

Cranston has won multiple awards playing Walter White, specifically 3 consecutive Emmy’s. The thing about Cranston is that he’s just a great actor. He’s so incredibly memorable that you have to ask: Is Bryan Cranston the best TV actor ever?

Seriously.

Who else has done such a 180 in public perception than Bryan Cranston? An argument could be made that while he was doing comedy he was part of an ensemble, more so than he is now, but he still stood out more than anyone else. When Cranston is on screen he brings it, who else has done a Cranston? And no, I’m not talking about transitioning from TV to movies - I’m talking about TV to TV.

I seriously can’t think of anyone. One name comes to mind and it’s Ted Danson – Why is Ted Danson in my head?

This is a legit argument. Is he just that good? I think so. Lets not forget he’s sneaking into movies every once in a while (Drive, Contagion, Lincoln Lawyer, Red Tails, the new Total Recall, and Affleck’s upcoming film Argo). Could Cranston go Clooney and turn into a movie star? Honestly… maybe. Why not?

I’ll stand by the fact that anyone who goes from Dr. Tim Whatley to Walter White has to be considered one of the best TV actors of all time.  Nobody has jumped from comedy to drama as memorably as Cranston.

If you don’t watch Breaking Bad… do it.

The Free Pass Actor

Last week if you told me that Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs would be tied for the weekend top gross ($36,200,000) and that Crazy, Sexy, Love would come in 5th behind – Aliens, Smurfs, Captain America, and Harry Potter I would have been awfully skeptical and probably would have argued it. I guess since I’m not a parent I forgot that little kids like little blue things in CGI.

I basically had no faith in The Smurfs at all. I heard that it’s really bad… Rotten Tomatoes reviewed it at 20%, for a while it was 0%, which is unheard of.

I actually saw Crazy, Sexy, Love, this weekend and liked it. I didn’t love it but I liked it, I should note that I’m a sucker for romcom’s but the movie was solid – the acting, writing, directing, all of the above, but maybe a little long - on a side note I think that Ryan Gosling is going to win an Academy Award in his acting career.

Anyway, I couldn’t figure out why I didn’t check out Cowboys and Aliens this weekend. It’s got all the fixins that I like – Han Solo, James Bond, Spielberg, Favreau, Cowboys, Aliens… I mean why didn’t I see this movie? I don’t know. Maybe it’s because I planned to see it on Sunday and drank too much on Saturday – but that’s a different story all in itself.

When I read that Aliens was on par with Smurfs I sat back and thought about this for a minute because quite honestly I think that the Aliens crowd should be bigger. The movie seems like an adventure and when you have blockbuster caliber attached to adventure you have a blockbuster. Did the Smurfy CGI kid thing really manage to bump the adventure offered from Aliens? I guess so, but really? I mean, when I think of Adventure I think of a few things:

1) Indiana Jones.

2) Steven Spielberg movies (producer of the film).

3) Steven Spielberg and Harrison Ford movies.

I’m lingering on this whole thing, but I guess it just goes to show that the top dogs have lost some steam. If this were a different time any Harrison Ford / Spielberg movie would still have lines outside the doors. Right? But on the other hand they did make Indiana Jones part 4 which may have been one of the more forgettable movies in my movie going life. Which got me thinking…

It got me thinking about actors who no matter what they do will have a Free Pass by the movie going public. When I say free pass I mean that we forget they were even in a shitty movie, all we remember is that they killed it at one time or another. What got me thinking about this – Harrison Ford, of course. He’s the ultimate Free Pass actor, as far as I’m concerned Harrison Ford could make a bomb with Josh Harnett or Brendan Frasier and we would turn the other cheek… oh wait…

Which brings me to my list of actors who have a “Free Pass” they may have done shit… but we will forever forgive them.

1 - Harrison Ford: See above. But seriously, lets take a second think about how great this guy is and was. When I heard that Harrison Ford improvised the famous line in Empire Strikes Back when Leia says “I love you” and he says “I know” he pretty much sealed the deal for the biggest badass around.

He’s been in movies that have generated over 3 billion dollars for Hollywood and he’s one of the most iconic actors working. He can do garbage and act as disgruntled as he wants and I’ll always love this guy. For the record – I personally think he’s keeping his lame earring just to throw it back in our faces, which I love.

2) Bill Murray: “Come in Ray” yes, he’s Peter Venkman, not to mention he had Meatballs, Caddyshack, and one of the most underrated Bill Murray roles of all time – Ernie McCrackin in Kingpin. I could sit here and ramble about Groundhogs Day or all of the amazing Wes Anderson movies he’s been in but I’m going to focus on his actually life for a second.

Not sure if you’re aware but there is currently a Bill Murray legend building as you read this. Seemingly there are new urban legend stories popping up yearly, and it all started with (as far as I’m concerned) the story about him tackling some kid in the park.

As the story goes - a kid was walking and suddenly was tackled from behind, when the kid got up he looked at his attacker and it was none other than Bill Murray, Murray looked at him and said “Nobody will ever believe you” and ran away from him. And so it began…

Murray seemingly has these random stories popping up all around the country - from him driving drunk in golf carts, to him fighting at Chicago Bears games. Murray is everywhere. Oh, and one other side note about him – he doesn’t have an agent, which makes it very difficult to communicate with this guy. Society loves Bill Murray.

3) Meryl Streep: Come on. She’s the woman with more accents than there are countries. I can’t remember her last bad movie but if she ever does one we probably will forget.

4) Robert De Niro: Ahem… Rocky and Bullwinkle and Righteous Kill. BUT this guy was Vito Corleone for god sake aka The Godfather. Not to mention, Goodfellas, Taxi Driver, Casino, Ragining Bull, Deer Hunter, and a bunch of comedy. De Niro has the ultimate pass and one may argue he’s in Ford territory.

5) Al Pacino: If a man has ever talked to much when accepting an award his name is Al Pacino but he’s still in the Free Pass club. He’s kind of in the De Niro category due to his earlier career but something about Pacino is different. He takes on more roles than De Niro, or so it seems.

What’s great about Pacino is that he’s entered the world of TV (most recently as Kevorkian for HBO) and also he was in Insomnia directed by Chris Nolan (just had to drop that in).

Although Pacino doesn’t have the De Niro comedy chops he’s a Corleone…

6) Johnny Depp: Hello Jack Sparrow. I like Depp, a lot of people like Depp, and Depp hasn’t done much bad over time (I haven’t seen The Tourist). Here’s the thing with the Depp man:

He does out-there roles – Scissorhands, Ed Wood, Sleepy Hollow, Alice in Wonderland, Willy Wonka, and Pirates. But then he brings it back and reminds us that he’s a good actor and not just a character in things like Blow, Nick of Time (underrated), Finding Neverland (saw it alone and cried in a theater), and Chocolat.

Lets not forget he’s an attractive guy and has a ton of sex appeal. But seriously, the thing about Depp is that ever since he took on Jack Sparrow he became more than a house hold name – he became an international brand. Disney has taken The Pirates franchise and marketed it to the masses like no other movie in recent history.

Depp may be the one actor who appeals to men, women, kids, stoners, film geeks, auteurs, other actors, up and coming actors, people who want to act like their misunderstood, and anyone trying to make something commercial. He runs the gamut.

7) Leonardo DiCaprio: When this guy froze in the Atlantic Ocean and Celine Dion’s My Heart Will Go on was cued DiCaprio locked this position down. Leo was sort of an actor version of Justin Bieber many years ago and managed to flex his talent muscle throughout his career.

I actually don’t know where to begin with this guy – He’s a legit Hollywood actor that can take on any role. I think for a while he was screwed because he’s always had this younger boy presence (which isn’t a bad thing) but it was difficult to believe everything he was doing. But now with age he’s able to be even more believable.

What’s especially great about Leo is that he had street cred with most Hollywood directors – I’m excited for his role in Django Unchained directed by Tarantino – coming out next year.

8) Will Smith: This is easy. He’s Will Smith. This man has worked his career like he’s a machine for the last 30 years, literally. He’s methodically become a superstar. Bill Simmons recently wrote a really good look into how this guy has become this guy.

Will Smith released a song call “Mr. NiceGuy” which pretty much sums up why he’ll always have a free pass.

9) Tom Hanks: In the 90’s this guy was the romcom king with Meg Ryan, he then went on to win back to back best actor awards and solidify himself as one of the most likable and bankable actors in Hollywood.

I love that Hanks has spread himself across most genres and platforms. Not to mention… he was in Radio Flyer (underrated).

10) George Clooney: Rounding out the Top 10 is George “I’ve probably slept with you” Clooney. I think Clooney is brilliant and I’ll tell you why:

Early in Clooney’s career, and after he broke out of ER, he did From Dusk Till Dawn, which was so totally out there and basically opposite smug doctor Clooney, it gained him some movie cred considering it was directed by Robert Rodriguez and co-written by Tarantino. But then Clooney said… I want to be a superstar and I want it now…

He jumped into One Fine Day, The Peacemaker, and Batman and Robin. Somewhere in those movies he smartened up and did Out of Sight with J-Lo but more importantly its was directed by Steven Soderbergh. I think it was this movie he said to himself “It’s better to work with good people rather than take the mainstream shortcut with easy films” (in those exact words).

From Out of Sight Clooney played it safe with his decisions all while taking on very difficult (smart) roles. He worked in films that had good/strong content. He surrounded himself with good people and even if a movie was crappy he always had the crutch to fall back on and say, “hey, it was a good story.” It’s like his movies have a fail safe if they’re bad… does this make sense?

Also – he’s a good director, and we all forgot he was in Leatherheads.

Bonus*

Tom Cruise: I can’t believe he’s not in my top 10 but lets be honest here, his couch jumping really F’d him. Just recently Mission Impossible 4 got bullied by Sherlock Holmes 2, and MI4 moved their release date anticipating a Homes box office ass kicking, come on… How did that happen to Tom Cruise? Unfortunately, everyone wants to see him fail so he doesn’t have the free pass anymore.

Brad Pitt: Ehhh, he should maybe be in the top 10.

Matt Damon: See Brad Pitt

The entire cast of Ocean’s 11, 12, 13: Soderbergh effect. See Damon.

Robert Downey Jr.: He’s getting to free pass status but he’s been down before and it could happen again, I need to see more.

Clint Eastwood: I had to put him here. Sure, he’s a director now but when he’s in a film he brings the goods, not to mention he’s a legend.

Sean Connery: Arguably the best 007 ever, also Indiana Jones’ dad. I think I have Indy Joes bias.

Honorable Mention:

Julia Roberts
Bruce Willis
Robin Williams
Russell Crowe
Marky Mark
Keanu Reeves
Michael J Fox
Eddie Murphy
Kevin Costner
Will Ferrell

I just read that Cowboys and Aliens edged The Smurfs by $800,000 —- There is hope for adventure.